Final predictions by ward

As promised, here is a ward-by-ward breakdown of our final predictions for the 2014 mayoral election in Toronto. We have Tory garnering the most votes in 33 wards for sure, plus likely another 5 in close races. Six wards are “too close to call”, with three barely leaning to Tory (38, 39, and 40) and three barely leaning to Ford (8, 35, and 43). We’re not predicting Chow will win in any ward, but will come second in fourteen.

Ward	Tory	Ford	Chow	Turnout
1	41%	36%	23%	48%
2	44%	34%	22%	50%
3	49%	31%	20%	51%
4	50%	31%	19%	51%
5	49%	32%	19%	50%
6	46%	33%	21%	50%
7	43%	36%	21%	49%
8	39%	39%	22%	47%
9	42%	37%	21%	50%
10	45%	35%	20%	50%
11	40%	36%	24%	49%
12	40%	36%	23%	49%
13	55%	13%	32%	49%
14	48%	17%	35%	47%
15	43%	36%	21%	50%
16	57%	29%	14%	50%
17	43%	33%	24%	49%
18	47%	16%	37%	47%
19	48%	15%	36%	45%
20	49%	16%	36%	44%
21	56%	12%	32%	49%
22	57%	12%	31%	48%
23	45%	34%	21%	48%
24	48%	33%	20%	50%
25	55%	30%	14%	50%
26	42%	23%	35%	49%
27	52%	14%	34%	46%
28	48%	17%	35%	47%
29	46%	21%	33%	50%
30	52%	14%	34%	48%
31	42%	23%	35%	49%
32	57%	12%	31%	49%
33	45%	35%	20%	49%
34	46%	34%	21%	50%
35	38%	41%	21%	49%
36	44%	37%	19%	50%
37	41%	38%	21%	50%
38	40%	39%	21%	49%
39	40%	39%	21%	50%
40	41%	39%	20%	50%
41	41%	38%	21%	50%
42	41%	38%	21%	48%
43	40%	40%	21%	50%
44	49%	35%	16%	50%