Well, it is now only days until the 42nd Canadian election, and we have come a long way since this long campaign started. Based on our analyses to date of voter and candidate characteristics, we can now provide riding-level predictions. As we keep saying, we have avoided the use of polls, so these present more of an experiment than anything else. Nonetheless, we’ve put them beside the predictions of five other organizations (as of the afternoon of 15 October 2015), specifically:
(We’ll note that the last doesn’t provide the likelihood of
a win, so isn’t colour-coded below, but does provide additional information for
our purposes here.)
You’ll see that we’re predicting more close races than all the
others combined, and more “leaning” races. In fact, the average margin of
victory from 308, Vox Pop, and Too Close to Call are 23%/26%/23% respectively, which
sounds high. Nonetheless, the two
truly notable differences we’re predicting are in Eglinton-Lawrence, where the
consensus is that finance minister Joe Oliver will lose badly (we predict he
might win) and Toronto Centre, where Bill Munro is predicted to easily beat
Linda McQuaig (we predict the opposite).
Anyway, we’re excited to see how these predictions look come
Monday, and we’ll come back after the election with an analysis of our
performance.
Now, get out and vote!
ReplyDeleteOutstanding quest there. What occurred after? Good luck! all of craigslist