16 October 2015

Final riding-level predictions

Well, it is now only days until the 42nd Canadian election, and we have come a long way since this long campaign started. Based on our analyses to date of voter and candidate characteristics, we can now provide riding-level predictions. As we keep saying, we have avoided the use of polls, so these present more of an experiment than anything else. Nonetheless, we’ve put them beside the predictions of five other organizations (as of the afternoon of 15 October 2015), specifically:

(We’ll note that the last doesn’t provide the likelihood of a win, so isn’t colour-coded below, but does provide additional information for our purposes here.)

You’ll see that we’re predicting more close races than all the others combined, and more “leaning” races. In fact, the average margin of victory from 308, Vox Pop, and Too Close to Call are 23%/26%/23% respectively, which sounds high. Nonetheless, the two truly notable differences we’re predicting are in Eglinton-Lawrence, where the consensus is that finance minister Joe Oliver will lose badly (we predict he might win) and Toronto Centre, where Bill Munro is predicted to easily beat Linda McQuaig (we predict the opposite).

Anyway, we’re excited to see how these predictions look come Monday, and we’ll come back after the election with an analysis of our performance.

Now, get out and vote!

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