23 January 2015

Comparing our predictions to the actual votes for the Toronto mayoral election

We value constructive feedback and continuous improvement, so we've taken a careful look at how our predictions held up for the recent mayoral election in Toronto.

The full analysis is here. The summary is that our estimates weren't too bad on average: the distribution of errors is centered on zero (i.e., not biased) with a small standard error. But, on-average estimates are not sufficient for the types of prediction we would like to make. At a ward-level, we find that we generally overestimated support for Tory, especially in areas where Ford received significant votes.



We understood that our simple agent-based approach wouldn't be enough. Now we're particularly motivated to gather up much more data to enrich our agents' behaviour and make better predictions.

2 comments:

  1. The Best Casinos near Harrah's Casino and Ocean State
    Best 당진 출장안마 casinos near Harrah's Casino and Ocean State in 하남 출장안마 Atlantic County, NJ. 사천 출장마사지 MapYRO, LLC is 청주 출장마사지 located in Ocean County, New Jersey. MapYRO, LLC provides 목포 출장샵 an overview of

    ReplyDelete
  2. Once the material enters the cavity, stress is maintained till the uncooked materials cools and solidifies. When the temperature of the plastic part is lower than the distortion temperature of the material, the mildew opens out and the plastic product is ejected. Among all of the injection molding manufacturing corporations within the US, UPM goes above and past manufacturing for its shoppers. Our logistics providers embody each achievement and managed transport. We don’t Cycle Gear cease after your product is faraway from the injection mildew, we’re with you till your cargo is delivered.

    ReplyDelete